Playoff Hopes

As the Winter Olympics begin in Vancouver, the Calgary Flames start their hiatus from hockey for the next two weeks. With only three players participating in the games, most players will be enjoying some time off from hockey. It will also be a time to reflect on the final 20 games of the season, and how their success in those 20 games will determine whether or not they’re playing in the post season or not. Something that seemed almost impossible at New Year’s is now a very real possibility; the Flames may miss the payoffs for the first time since 2003.

The Flames’ run to the playoffs will be an uphill battle as they try to hold off Detroit, Anaheim, and Dallas, and catch Nashville, Colorado and Vancouver. With Calgary’s win on Saturday, they sit in eighth place in the Western Conference with 69 points, and 20 games left to play. Looking back at the post-lockout era, there is a problem for the Flames. With only 20 games remaining, the Flames have only 40 points still available. It is a pretty safe bet they won’t win all 20 games, so the questions is how many games will they need to win in order to secure a spot? In the past four seasons, the eight place team in the West has had 91, 91, 96 and 95 points. So in the best case scenario, the Flames would need 22 points, or the equivalent of 11 wins in their last 20 games. In the worst case scenario, the Flames would need 27 points in their final 20 games. To put these numbers in perspective, the Flames have recorded 14 points in their previous 20 games, and in their best stretch this season, from November 4th to December 13th, the Flames managed 27 points in 20 games. Securing the 8th playoff spot will be a gargantuan task for the boys in red.

Securing the necessary number of points will not be solely in the hands of the Flames either. As the League heads into the stretch drive, most games will be within the conference, meaning many games will represent four point swings. Not only do the Flames need to win their games, but they need other teams to lose, and they need them to lose in regulation time. Last week, the Stars, Canucks, Avalanche, Kings, Ducks and Red Wings were all involved in three point games, and with the exception of Colorado, were all on the losing end. However, they all gained points on the Flames those nights, who were unable to get any points.

Is there any positive news heading in the stretch drive? Well, the Flames have a slightly better road record than home record, and 11 of their final 20 are away from the Dome. But, one is against the league’s best team, the Washington Capitals, and one is in Chicago, where the Flames haven’t won since the Cubs were World Series champs. Only 12 of the final 20 games are against playoff teams. But, three of them are against the Red Wings and Ducks; teams the Flames traditionally struggle against and who are in the thick of the chase. The Flames have four games left against Minnesota, against whom they have a 22-7-3 record over the past five seasons. But, they haven’t beaten them in their two previous meetings this year.

Of course anything can happen in the final two months of the season, and I look forward to watching. Perhaps this Olympic break is exactly what the Flames needed to right the ship, and go on a winning streak. I remain fairly confidant the Flames will make the playoffs, but I fear they will be the 7th or 8th seed. Once again they will face Chicago or San Jose, and I am not confidant they can win a series against either of these teams. If the Flames do make the playoffs, it will likely be yet another early 1st round playoff exit.

One final bit of bad news for the Flames is that they don’t have any games left against the Edmonton Oilers, while Nashville, Chicago, Detroit, San Jose, Vancouver, Anaheim, Dallas, Phoenix, Colorado and Los Angeles do. Yet another two points they need to make up somehow.


-TheRev


Photo from: http://www.calgarysun.com/sports/hockey/2009/09/03/10740696.html