The US Open: Glory's Third Last Shot

The season's second major begins today outside Washington, D.C., where players will tee it up at Congressional Country Club, each trying to win the 111th US Open. The biggest story of course, isn't who's going to win, but who isn't going to win; Tiger Woods. Tiger has pulled up lame and will not be competing this year. The way he's played the past year, it's doubtful he really would have been a factor, but with him not even playing, it is truly wide open as to who's going to win. Perhaps the most wide open field since the late 90's.

The thing about the US Open, it's cachet if you will, is the difficult course set up, which normally sees a winning score a little closer to par than at other tournaments. The rough is thick, fairways tight and greens fast. For some, this means that it takes driving accuracy to win a US Open, while other claim it comes down to putting. But really, like almost every tournament, it comes down to a combination of everything. The person who puts it all together for 72 holes will come out on top. And that leads to the biggest question; who's going to win this year?

Let's take a look at the favorites:


Lee Westwood          10-1

The 'Best Player Without a Major' is once again in position to win his first.  But can he do it?  While Westwood is consistently in the mix in the majors, he's never able to bring it home.  However, that experience of being in contention on Sunday only helps him in the future.  While I have trouble considering him a favorite, I wouldn't be surprised if he won.

20-1.  The BPWAM moniker is a tough one to shake.


Steve Stricker          25-1

Seriously?  I don't get the hype about this guy.  The biggest prize of his career is the 'Comeback Player of the Year' which he somehow won two years in a row.  He doesn't have many big wins, and hasn't been in contention in a major since the 1998 PGA Championship.

Let's be realistic, 50-1


K.J. Choi          30-1

The South Korean was able to win the 'fifth major' this year, at the Player's Championship.  A consistent player in the majors, but he hasn't been able to put together a real good US Open, missing three cuts in the past five years.  His strength is his steady game which helps him avoid finding any real trouble most days.  Could be a factor come Sunday if he's near the top of the leaderboard.

30-1 sounds about right.


Rory McIlroy          15-1

After McIlroy's epic collapse at the Masters in April, it's difficult to give him any real consideration.  Most players who suffer such setbacks take years to recover mentally.  Look at Phil Mickelson after the 2006 US Open.  He didn't contend in a major for three years.  However, McIlroy has one thing going for him, he's 22.  Kids can rebound from those kind of things a little better than the older players, so he could still be a factor.  Just maybe not 15-1.

I've got McIlroy at 25-1.  If he can come out of the gate with a good first round though, look for him to win.


Dustin Johnson          25-1

Dustin Johnson sort of has the same thing going on as Rory McIlroy; it's mostly mental.  Johnson was the one who collapsed at the US Open last year, shooting 82 on Sunday.  But he was able to show resilience, losing the PGA Championship after a rules infraction on the 72nd hole.  To be able to compete successfully after having suffered the 82 at Pebble shows me this guy has what it takes upstairs.  Plus he hits it a ton.

I think he's better than many think.  I have him at 15-1.


Bubba Watson          40-1

He hits it a long way.  He hits a lot of greens.  And he's been in contention in a major before, having lost last year's PGA in a playoff.  He also won in New Orleans in April.  I have to think he'll be a factor this weekend.

40-1 is too much for this guy, I think he's a more respectable 20-1.


Graeme McDowell          35-1

Who is Curtis Strange?  That's the Jeopardy 'question' to He was the last person to repeat as US Open champion.  That happened in 1989.  Before that, it was Ben Hogan in 1951.  Don't look for McDowell to be next.  While he was a worthy champion last year and I wouldn't consider his win anything close to a fluke, I don't think he'll be able to do it twice in a row.  There's a reason only two people have repeated in the past 60 years; it's just so difficult.

75-1.  He could win another Open in the future, but nothing tells me he's ready to repeat.


Ernie Els          50-1

Sure, he won the last US Open to be held at Congressional in 1997, but the game and the course have changed so much, that 'course knowledge' doesn't really amount to a hill of beans.  Ernie will go down as one of the better players of the past generation, but I think his best years are behind him.

100-1.  Thanks for the memories Ernie!


Phil Mickelson          12-1

Despite what some lanky writers might tell you, with Tiger Woods out, Phil Mickelson is the best player in the world, the most able to win the US Open, and should be the hands down favorite to win this week.  Mickelson has a record five runner up finishes in this tournament, so he knows how to be there on Sunday.  His career accomplishments are more than the rest of the player featured in this article combined, and in a head to head battle with any of them, I see him coming out on top.

Phil wants this tournament more than any other. 5-1.


Nick Watney          25-1

Watney's having his best season ever on the PGA Tour in 2011, which has included a victory in a WGC event.  But he's struggled in the US Open, with two missed cuts, a 60th and a 76th place finish.  In fact he's never been under par in any US Open round.  Experience is such an important factor in winning a major, and he needs a little more to be taken seriously.

40-1.


Luke Donald          10-1

The current number one has been having a fairly good season, winning the Match Play Championship and losing the Heritage Classic in a playoff.  While I'd like to rank his a little higher, Donald hasn't fared well in the US Open, missing three cuts in seven starts, and a tie for 12th as his best finish.  So while he's been playing as well as anybody this year, his track record scares me a little.

I'll put him at a still respectable and more realistic 25-1.


Martin Kaymer          25-1

Yes, he won the 2010 PGA and was ranked number one in the world.  But have you done for me lately Herr Kaymer?  He missed the cut at Augusta and has been relatively quiet this year.  I don't see him coming out of the wood work to win this weekend.

75-1.  You can't miss the cut at Augusta four years in a row and be considered a favorite to win a major.



-TheRev

Jersey Fouls
twitter.com/TheRevBW
thesportsroundup@gmail.com
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