Well, there's hockey in Winnipeg again. And many hockey fans couldn't be happier. Myself, I'm neither here nor there about it. On one hand, it'll be nice to see butts in the seats, but on the other hand, when travelling, I'd rather catch a Flames game in Atlanta than Winnipeg. I suppose that's purely a selfish reason and it'd probably be better for the game with a team in Winnipeg. Having said that, I refuse to use support for this move as some sort of litmus test of one's patriotism.So the big question facing hockey in Winnipeg, and it isn't what they'll be called, it's how long will they stay this time? I will be so bold as to say that the Polar Bears, or Falcons or Moose or whatever they decide to call themselves, will have moved from Winnipeg in five or six years. Because when I look at this situation, it just doesn't add up.
Here are some of the key facts:
- Smallest market in the NHL: Winnipeg, 694,668
- Smallest Arena in NHL: MTS Centre: 15,015
First of all, the arena is too small. With only 15,015 seats, the MTS Centre is considerably smaller than most NHL rinks, and will be selling a couple of thousand less seats than other teams, per game. Comparing it to the Saddledome, which holds 19,289, a Winnipeg team will be selling 175,234 fewer seats each year than the Flames. Considering the Flames' average ticket price of $59.73, that's almost $10,500,000 less in revenue each year for the Polar Bears. And that doesn't include luxury suites, which bring in the bulk of ticket monies. But it does lead to the next problem, corporate money.
In most successful NHL cities, the majority of season tickets are owned by corporations. The difference between having corporate ownership versus private, is that companies can wait out losing streaks and recessions better than Johnny Punch-Clock. When the team or the economy tanks, the average person will be giving up their tickets before, say, Imperial Oil. Corporate tickets give teams a little bit of a cushion against bad times. The problem with Winnipeg is there aren't enough corporations to buy that many tickets. Like Ottawa, and to a lesser extent Edmonton, Winnipeg is a government town. The government cannot get into buying season tickets for obvious reasons, leaving only a handful of smaller companies in the Peg to buy up the suites and lower bowl seats. While many teams can sell dozens of suites each year for hundred of thousands of dollars, Winnipeg cannot. This leaves the people of Winnipeg to do most of the buying.
While they may love hockey, and they may have supported the Moose; the NHL is a very different beast and a very expensive beast. The problem this team is going to have, is there simply aren't enough people or enough companies who can afford to buy NHL-priced tickets. With the 2nd most expensive average ticket price in the NHL (behind the Leafs), Winnipegers are being asked to make three or five year commitments to season tickets ranging from $1,755 to $5,850 in price. That's steep, and I don't think there'll be enough people in Winnipeg to make it happen.
Of course the ticket problem won't affect the team in the first few seasons as the initial euphoria over having NHL hockey again will ensure the arena is filled every night. But after that, people may start to reconsider having mortgaged their $60,000 houses to watch hockey. Especially when their team isn't very good. Let's not forget that this isn't a new team. This is the Atlanta Thrashers, who have made the post season once in the past 11 years. Because of their obvious financial struggles, it's doubtful they'll be able to spend to the cap; they're more likely to be a "closer to the cap floor" team. And there's no reason to think they will suddenly turn it around because their new fans like hockey. When this team continues to struggle, attendance will lag and the financial problems will deepen.
It's true that Canada's wealthiest man is one of the owners of this new team, and he could not doubt support this team forever without any significant losses. But even people with $20 billion don't like to lose money. After four or five seasons of losing $15 to $20 million per season, it'll be time to pull the plug on this failed experiment. Let's not forget, this city has already lost their NHL team once before. There isn't really any reason to think it'll work this time around.
I love the idea of the Flames playing the former-Thrashers six times each season and I hope it does work in Winnipeg; there could be some great rivalries. But I wouldn't get the Polar Bears' logo tattooed on your ass just yet.
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11 comments:
i disagree with the fact they will be a cap floor team. I believe the owners will make a push to be in the mid $50 Mil range and go after some free agents this summer. This is a giant risk financially and as Bettman said "this stadium has to be sold out every game for this to work." The strength of the Canadian dollar signifigantly helps the PB's chances, but what happens if in 5 or 10 years the amercian economy rebounds and the canadian loonie loses value? Are they in the same situation as before?
I tend to agree with you mostly that it might not work. 5 years might be a tad agressive but i would venture a guess that by 2025 Winnipeg coul dbe on the move again. I hope not though as i love the thought of more "hockey cities" in the league.
Luckily in Edmonton, the fans still watch losing teams and the city is so loyal that they can suck public funds as much as they want....not sure if the peg will follow suit...not enough pedigree to rely on
Calgary and Winnipeg have always been rivals so i would expect nothing less than a negative blog, what you or most people from Calgary and western Canada who write negative comments fail to recognize is that Winnipeg has a significantly more storied hockey history, hell, the Russian goalie Tretiak and the Red Army team from Russia played a game in Winnipeg before they hit the Nhl with the legendary series. Winnipeg got screwed the first time and it had nothing to do with the fans. I would even go so far as to say that if the Oilers were not so damn good Winnipeg would have had a Cup or two in the mid 80's. You had better watch out cause in two years when we are in the same division as Calgary and Edmonton your teams, one highly overpaid past their prime players and going to get a spanking from the much younger, much much bigger Jets !! Finally Winnipeg has a team as it always should have and i can guarantee you that no one is going to take it away again !!
I'm just sticking with the facts there Anonymous...I could care less if there was team in Winnipeg or Atlanta.
I don't doubt Winnipeg's hockey tradition at all, I doubt their economy. Unfortunately, tradition doesn't pay the bills. I feel strongly this team will struggle financially, and I stand by that.
I believe that you may be wrong and Winnipeg may actually do better, all things said, then either Calgary or Edmonton in the next few years. Reasons, a highly organized and connected ownership and management team who look like they really take care of business. aLso, Winnipeg`s economyis much better off than you might think. Finally, as co owner David Thomson there is a sense of community in Winnipeg, not seen anywhere else in Canada. Time will tell.
Calgary - 19,200 x $60 ticket price x 45 home games = ~$52 million
Winnipeg - 15,000 x $82 ticket price x 45 home games = ~$55 million
At the higher ticket prices Winnipeg is charging, seat revenue alone Winnipeg is actually pulling in more. Obviously a place like Calgary has tons more corporate support which translates into way more revenue, but Winnipeg has more of the 800 biggest Canadian companies than Edmonton or Ottawa, who are both doing fine.
And Winnipeg now has maxed out their 8,000 waiting list for tickets. There is more demand than the waiting list allows.
There's a lot of this sentiment in Calgary, but it's really a mix of the arrogance of the city and not understanding the economics of other cities.
Go Flames.
Yes, that is the case. But how long can Winnipeg sustain 15,000 tickets at $82? That's second most expensive in the league. I worry that after the "honeymoon" phase, people won't be flocking to the arena.
Only time will tell.
Well, people in Winnipeg stepped up to the plate and hit a grand-slam. All 13,000 season tickets were sold with commitments of 3 to 5 years and the luxury boxes were sold with commitments of 7 to 10 years. Oh, and there is a waiting list of 8,000 people for season tickets. Supply and demand was an instrument played with symphony-like precision by True North (owners of the the NHL club in Winnipeg). If the math is done that means that Winnipeg will have ticket revenues of 55-60 million a year. That is before sponsors, broadcast rights, and everything else is factored in. Not bad for that small market team eh?
Well, you can pontificate all you want, but bottom line is Wpg has a lot of hockey fans and it does have money. They lost the team once, they won't lose it again. As for being the second most expensive ticket - it's supply and demand, I'll bet that in three years they'll have the highest ticket price and will still be sold out with 8,000 on the waiting list. It's amazing what a small rink will do.
I think Calgary is jealous as Wpg all of a sudden just became the 3rd best team in Canada behind Vancouver and Montreal ;)
The author of this article is clearly an ignorant hater.
The team will be gone in 5-6 years? Are you kidding me the whole place is sold out for 3 years, with the most expensive seats staying for 4 and 5. I'd be shocked if the city that sold out these seats in 17 mins would be letting them all go in less than a decade.
Winnipeg has the 3rd fastest growing economy in the entire country, our crime is almost entirely petty and corporate sponsorship is not an issue at all, that and this team isn't supported at all by the government and nor will they be.
True North owns the Moose, the new Jets and the venue they're playing in, and they can make the MTS centre bigger (which they are going to do asap).
There is absolutely no way the team moves within the next 10 years, the only reason you wrote this ignorant article was to stir up fans and gratz you can do that, I guess its a fair trade for good journalism you slob.
Hey!! how come there's nothing on the site about US Open?? don't ya like golf anymore?? It starts tomorrow and I'd like to read something interesting about it. Like, How about Wes winning??
("Man About Town"??? Hey!!)
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