Well, there's hockey in Winnipeg again. And many hockey fans couldn't be happier. Myself, I'm neither here nor there about it. On one hand, it'll be nice to see butts in the seats, but on the other hand, when travelling, I'd rather catch a Flames game in Atlanta than Winnipeg. I suppose that's purely a selfish reason and it'd probably be better for the game with a team in Winnipeg. Having said that, I refuse to use support for this move as some sort of litmus test of one's patriotism.
So the big question facing hockey in Winnipeg, and it isn't what they'll be called, it's how long will they stay this time? I will be so bold as to say that the Polar Bears, or Falcons or Moose or whatever they decide to call themselves, will have moved from Winnipeg in five or six years. Because when I look at this situation, it just doesn't add up.
Here are some of the key facts:
- Smallest market in the NHL: Winnipeg, 694,668
- Smallest Arena in NHL: MTS Centre: 15,015
Now why is this important? Well, these numbers are the reason this team will struggle financially; the reason they'll lose so much money. And I fear they'll find themselves in the same position financially as they did in Atlanta, but with a sold out arena.
First of all, the arena is too small. With only 15,015 seats, the MTS Centre is considerably smaller than most NHL rinks, and will be selling a couple of thousand less seats than other teams, per game. Comparing it to the Saddledome, which holds 19,289, a Winnipeg team will be selling 175,234 fewer seats each year than the Flames. Considering the Flames' average ticket price of $59.73, that's almost $10,500,000 less in revenue each year for the Polar Bears. And that doesn't include luxury suites, which bring in the bulk of ticket monies. But it does lead to the next problem, corporate money.
In most successful NHL cities, the majority of season tickets are owned by corporations. The difference between having corporate ownership versus private, is that companies can wait out losing streaks and recessions better than Johnny Punch-Clock. When the team or the economy tanks, the average person will be giving up their tickets before, say, Imperial Oil. Corporate tickets give teams a little bit of a cushion against bad times. The problem with Winnipeg is there aren't enough corporations to buy that many tickets. Like Ottawa, and to a lesser extent Edmonton, Winnipeg is a government town. The government cannot get into buying season tickets for obvious reasons, leaving only a handful of smaller companies in the Peg to buy up the suites and lower bowl seats. While many teams can sell dozens of suites each year for hundred of thousands of dollars, Winnipeg cannot. This leaves the people of Winnipeg to do most of the buying.
While they may love hockey, and they may have supported the Moose; the NHL is a very different beast and a very expensive beast. The problem this team is going to have, is there simply aren't enough people or enough companies who can afford to buy NHL-priced tickets. With the 2nd most expensive average ticket price in the NHL (behind the Leafs), Winnipegers are being asked to make three or five year commitments to season tickets ranging from $1,755 to $5,850 in price. That's steep, and I don't think there'll be enough people in Winnipeg to make it happen.
Of course the ticket problem won't affect the team in the first few seasons as the initial euphoria over having NHL hockey again will ensure the arena is filled every night. But after that, people may start to reconsider having mortgaged their $60,000 houses to watch hockey. Especially when their team isn't very good. Let's not forget that this isn't a new team. This is the Atlanta Thrashers, who have made the post season once in the past 11 years. Because of their obvious financial struggles, it's doubtful they'll be able to spend to the cap; they're more likely to be a "closer to the cap floor" team. And there's no reason to think they will suddenly turn it around because their new fans like hockey. When this team continues to struggle, attendance will lag and the financial problems will deepen.
It's true that Canada's wealthiest man is one of the owners of this new team, and he could not doubt support this team forever without any significant losses. But even people with $20 billion don't like to lose money. After four or five seasons of losing $15 to $20 million per season, it'll be time to pull the plug on this failed experiment. Let's not forget, this city has already lost their NHL team once before. There isn't really any reason to think it'll work this time around.
I love the idea of the Flames playing the former-Thrashers six times each season and I hope it does work in Winnipeg; there could be some great rivalries. But I wouldn't get the Polar Bears' logo tattooed on your ass just yet.
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